There have been ongoing changes in the risk assessment of a large asteroid, named 2024 YR4, potentially colliding with Earth in 2032. A new analysis conducted on Wednesday, February 19, revealed that the probability of impact now stands at 1.5%.
Previously, the U.S. space agency NASA had estimated this risk at 3.1%, while the European Space Agency (ESA) had assessed it at 2.8%.
These fluctuations are due to variations in the asteroid’s trajectory in space. Such changes occur as scientists continue to study the asteroid’s path more accurately, refining the estimated risk of impact.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected in space in December 2024, in Chile, using the ATLAS technology a system of telescopes designed to detect potentially hazardous asteroids.
Four days later, on December 31, space monitoring systems immediately added it to the list of objects that could pose a threat to Earth.
Since January of this year, researchers have been analyzing the asteroid to better understand its possible trajectory and whether it could impact Earth.
As of now, 2024 YR4 is over 45 million kilometers away from Earth and is moving farther into space.Initial measurements indicate that the asteroid has a diameter between 40 and 90 meters, meaning it could be larger than New York’s Statue of Liberty.
If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, it could cause significant damage over an area extending up to 50 kilometers from the impact site, depending on its velocity, which is estimated to reach up to 17 kilometers per second upon impact.
The asteroid will remain visible until early April, after which it will no longer be observable through telescopes. Scientists predict that it will reappear in 2028, raising concerns about the difficulty of tracking it during the years when it will not be visible.
Leading space agencies around the world are closely monitoring 2024 YR4. If the asteroid continues to pose a serious threat, experts may consider measures to prevent it from reaching Earth.
